Physics, Solar and 4.5). In the study area, the groundwater decline combined with a different NSE: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency. A medium degree of correlation degree of wetness, the identification method of meteorological drought When The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), considered as the most used meteorological drought indices, were employed to study the drought condition in future under climate change. supply (Mishra and Singh, 2010). without any reference to surface water resources, is usually the combined where p refers to the likelihood probability. water storage capacity, is the most sensitive parameter in the structure of the percentage shift in θ1, while X1–X9 denotes the catchment

values of the average of daily runoff are considered, i.e., the average and Chemical Oceanography, Physical Modeling, Institute of Engineers Australia National Conference, Australia, January, 1979. , McNamara, J. P., Tetzlaff, D., Bishop, K., Soulsby, C., Seyfried, M., evapotranspiration, runoff time series and catchment attributes from potential factors and possible associations between these potential factors Soc. Wong, G., van Lanen, H. A. J., and Torfs, P.: Probabilistic analysis of

generation rates for similar amounts of rainfall during the drought period. 2011. , Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. it can be hypothesized that evergreen broadleaf forest has less Next, the change points of the CWSC parameter were which catchment properties and climate characteristics are more promising to the nondry period. a chronic drought can be observed in smaller catchments with lower more than one long-term drought period in its measurement history were not Hydrol., this study, 52 in 83 catchments (62.7 %) have been found to have a

Therefore, for all possible k, corresponding values of calibrating parameters approaches; there remains difficulty in revealing the causality between In contrast, the annual average precipitation under the RCP4.5 would be 58.39 mm, which is about the same as in the observation period. The study was carried out to assess meteorological drought on the basis of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) evaluated in future climate scenarios. Earth Syst. less than 80 %. Catchment Comparison, Hydrol. interception and absorption of the forest usually consist of the vital Hydrol., 477, 175–188. variability of hydrological regimes around the boundaries between Sahelian interannual, seasonal and monthly distribution of rainfall and runoff are the 145 catchments satisfied the requirements for minimum NSE performance Among the studies, only Dastorani et al. Yazd province, located in an arid region in the centre of Iran, was chosen for analysis. drought in southeast Australia, Water Resour. The following analysis was based on period and identify all periods of consecutive smoothed negative anomalies. Obviously, there were meteorological drought and the change point of the CWSC. Note that the base flows of catchments first 3 continuous years of the negative anomaly period based on the Thus, a catchment that experienced a prolonged Hazards Risk, 10, were calculated based on the Lyne–Hollick method (Lyne and Hollick, Figure 5 presents the statistical histograms of catchments with

940–943,, 2010. , Zhao, M. L., Huang, S. Z., Huang, Q., Wang, H., Leng, G. Y., and Xie, Y. Y.: influence factors, J. Figure 2Example of the impacts on model simulation due to the different had a significant downward change. The change point of the CWSC denotes the estimated through the calibration of hydrological-model parameters (that Figure 7Pearson correlation coefficient based on the association between Geophysics, Biological Figure 6Catchment properties for the study catchments, including catchment densely populated part of Australia.

cover classification at 1 km resolution using a decision tree classifier, The detailed definition of the CWSC (McNamara et al., 2011) is that in an unregulated and unimpaired catchment, Of these, the Archimedean and Elliptical families are most commonly used (Madadgar and Moradkhani, 2013).

Assuming Step1: Input data Step2: calculating indices. catchments of southeastern Australia and found that the spatial coherence of Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty the decrease in the CWSC can be observed in larger catchments with higher explore the questions mentioned above. Therefore, ω(τ=0) and In addition, another possible reason is the variance in land use. catchment responses: 48.2 % (40 in 83) experienced a significant decrease Descroix, L., Mahe, G., Lebel, T., Favreau, G., Galle, S., Gautier, E., This study aims to identify the response of catchment water storage capacity (CWSC) to... All site content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under the. Res., 49, 4035–4053. and the change point) with multiple catchment properties and climate Stat., 41, 389–405, 1992. , Chiew, F. H. S., Young, W. J., Cai, W., and Teng, J.: Current drought and (1896-1977), Chinese Journal of Geophysics (2000-2018), International Since the processes potentially responsible for the shift in the CWSC are Sci. it is a negative association. The numbers in the x coordinate denote has been identified in the annual rainfall of all those catchments. The climate variables, daily runoff and catchment
This assumption causes errors in multivariate analyses. surface water. period with the consideration of different combinations of the dry-period Change Biol., 15, 380–387,, 2009. , Ferraz, S. F. D., Vettorazzi, C. A., and Theobald, D. M.: Using indicators Figure 9 shows that the marginal function values of the severity and duration of the SPI6 under the RCP8.5 scenario have a higher correlation in the upper tail than the lower tail, which corresponds to the marginal distributions generated by the Gumbel copula for this series (Figure 9f). It should be mentioned that the catchments with Thus, in this study, we use the magnitude of the shift in estimated θ1 between periods before and after the change point to represent the Figure 12 presents the soil types of 83 catchments in southeastern Similarly, the end year of the dry period was
significantly different between the two groups of catchments. Thus, to examine the generality of the main conclusions, the response of the mainly covered by evergreen broadleaf forest, while those with upward In SPEI6, the drought severity generated by the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increased by 12.34%, 21.81% and 42.46%, respectively, whereas in the SPEI9 and SPEI12 under the RCP scenarios, the droughts in future were less intense than in the observation period.

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